The dramatic increases in interest rates are starting to noticeably hit commercial property values. Green Street’s October 2022 price index reports the following national property value declines off recent peaks:
Shopping Malls -23%
Apartments -17%
Warehouses -17%
Office Buildings -14%
For all commercial property types, the decline is 13% from a peak earlier this year. This is the largest decline since the 2008 financial crisis when prices dropped 35% according to Peter Rothemund, a researcher at the real estate analytics firm Green Street.
There is an obvious relationship with the cost of capital and property values. Sometimes, the price declines are mitigated by a compression in capitalization rates where buyers are willing to take lower returns. In this case, the very steep increases in loan rates are noticeably impacting values. The Federal Reserve’s 75-point bump was the fourth increase of that size.
In the South 2022 Tri this will become a bigger issue. Even early 2021 sales could reflect market conditions that are no longer attainable. We will be keeping an eye out for such potential overassessments.